The Carlyle Group Inc.CG
NASDAQ • Financial Services
$48.63
P/E
31.94
PEG
—
FCF Yield
—
Rev Growth YoY
-76.5% YoY
Gross Margin
189.5%
Health Score
4/10
D/E Ratio
2.41
Confidence
LOW
Business Snapshot
The Carlyle Group is a global alternative asset manager operating across private equity, credit, real assets, and investment solutions. It generates revenue primarily from management fees (based on assets under management) and performance fees from carried interest on fund exits. Carlyle competes in the highly concentrated asset management industry alongside firms like Blackstone and KKR, holding a top-tier position with approximately $426 billion in assets under management. The company’s TTM revenue of $3.99B reflects a large operational scale, but its business model is defined by volatile earnings tied to investment realization cycles and market conditions. This performance-sensitive revenue stream creates pronounced quarter-to-quarter swings, making consistent growth difficult to assess over short periods.
Financial Health
Gross margin is flagged as unreliable due to a data anomaly (189.5%), while net margin stands at 13.5%, reflecting modest profitability after a period of heavy revenue contraction. Debt/equity of 2.41x indicates a highly leveraged balance sheet, limiting financial flexibility and increasing interest expense risk...
Risk Assessment
- VALUATION — P/E of 31.94x is roughly double the sector average of 16x, making the stock expensive on earnings despite falling revenue.
- EARNINGS QUALITY — The company has not beaten earnings estimates in any of the last 4 quarters, a 0/4 record that erodes confidence in management’s guidance.
- REVENUE DECELERATION — Revenue declined 76.5% year-over-year and then fell a further 89.7% sequentially, indicating an accelerating downturn.
- DEBT — Debt/equity of 2.41x is high, leaving the balance sheet stretched and vulnerable to rising interest costs or a prolonged fee revenue slump.
- 52-WEEK POSITION — At $48.63, the stock is 30.4% below its 52-week high of $69.85 and only 12.6% above the low of $43.19, reflecting persistent downward pressure.
- TECHNICALS — RSI, MACD, and moving average data unavailable for this period; momentum cannot be independently confirmed....